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The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), will be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Friday, January 26 at 13:30 GMT and as we approach release time, here are the forecasts economists and researchers of eight major banks.
Headline PCE is expected to be flat at 2.6% y-o-y, while core is expected to decline twice to 3.0%. On a monthly basis, both are expected to be at 0.2%.
Source: fxstreet.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Previous Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): As previously mentioned DTS 25.01.24 “We will mark today as a ‘wild card’… the bullish directional influence can be reversed at any time.” The price fluctuated between the cycle penetration level of 4895 (LIS) and 4926, continuing the current triangle consolidation pattern. The previous range was 33 handles on 1.457 million contracts traded.
Note: Daily Trading Room chat logs can be viewed at: https://www.dropbox.com/home/PTG%20MTS%20Trading%20Room%20Chat%20Logs
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us to Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average low is 4892. Price continues to consolidate between 4905 – 4925 value area, which we will mark as “key” bull/bear ends. Hence, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Taurus Scenario: Price holds bid above 4925, initially targets 4935 – 4945 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price maintains a bid below 4905, initially targeting the 4890 – 4885 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4924 PVA Low Edge = 4908 Prior POC = 4915
March 2024 Range and Baseline Projections (ES) Convention (H).
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4956; View LOD ATR range: 4874; 3 day pivot: 4905; 3 Day Cycle Goal: 4951; Average True Range 10 days 46? VIX: 13
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Previous Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price retested the 3-day cycle level (17754) before reversing direction, pushing lower to test 17600 (LIS). The previous range was 210 handles on 702,000 contracts traded.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us to Cycle Day 1 (CD1): The average drop is 17586, which has been crossed, as the bearish momentum is currently in place. Repeating the 5-day POC test (17468) shows the likely scenario. Hence, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Taurus Scenario: Price maintains a bid above 17555, initially targeting the 17615 – 17635 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price maintains a bid below 17555, initially targeting the 17495 – 17465 zone.
PVA High Edge = 17727 PVA Low Edge = 17620 Prior POC = 17695
March 2024 Range and Baseline Projections (NQ) Agreement (H).
HOD ATR Range Projection: 17751; View LOD ATR range: 17329; 3 day pivot: 17596; 3 Day Cycle Goal: 17856; Average True Range 10 days: 242; VIX: 13
Commercial Strategy: Our regular trading strategy will simply remain unchanged…We will be flexible in trading both long and short from the Aggregate Decision Levels. Keep focusing on Bulls/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, staying in line with the dominant force within the day increases the chances of producing profitable trades.
Stay focused…Unbiased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, we have to apply. Willing is not enough, we must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trading strategy report is distributed for “educational purposes only” and should in no way be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell futures.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTE! No representation is made that the use of this strategy or any trading system or methodology will result in profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with trading securities and stock options. Only venture capital should be used for trading. Securities trading is not for everyone.
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