merchants,
I’m excited to share my top swing trading ideas for next week. I will detail my exact trading plans for stocks that present favorable risk:reward opportunities and are likely to make significant directional moves. And stay until the end as I share a key lesson.
So, without further ado, let’s get right into it.
At the end of the first quarter, I noticed that clear momentum setups in large-cap tech names lacked follow-through. This was as capital and performance began to gain momentum in more defensive sectors. Sectors like financials, utilities, and industrials have been rocking lately, which interests me. It shows me that the risk can be removed and I need to make the necessary adjustments.
So you’ll notice that my swing ideas for next week are significantly different than my ideas and setup from last week.
MSTR Lower High Continuation Short
MSTR took a hit on Thursday with the short report and finally showed massive relative weakness in the underlying Bitcoin. This was a huge character change for the stock, which previously traded at a huge premium to Bitcoin.
After Friday’s character change and weak close, I’m looking for a lower high / bounce to shorts for a one to two day continuation.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and fees.
Here is my plan:
I look for the stock to push towards the developing VWAP from day 1 of the selloff, ie around $1750 – $1800, and fail on the 5-minute chart, thus confirming a level to short against. After that, I plan to be short against this pivot high, aiming for a move to Thursday’s lows where I will cover up to half the position.
From there, I will follow the stop conservatively, on the 5 minute time frame, using lower highs or an intraday vwap retracement. The high target for the full day or 2 day position is a move towards $1550 – $1500.
DJT: Push back into Supply Zone to Short
The stock failed several times last week as it fell to $70. So, without a strong bias, I will just look to react if DJT continues to trade with general pressures and sustains this short-term developing downtrend.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and fees.
It’s a reactionary idea. Here is my plan:
From Tuesday to Thursday, the stock struggled in the $70s, failing each day and confirming lower highs. Therefore, I am looking for the stock to make a lower high around $67 – $69 and fail intraday – that will be my signal to enter. I don’t want to see the stock come off Thursday’s high. If this happens, the trend is short-term interrupted.
So, if the stock makes a lower high on the 15-minute time frame near this supply zone, I’ll have a stop above it. My first target will be a move towards $63, a support zone. After trailing my stop on the 15-minute time frame using lower highs, I will target a move of $60 and then $55, scaling along the way to lower intraday lows. My stay period for this position will be up to three days.
A basic package I would like to share with you:
As the dynamics change and what worked in the last few months loses its edge, traders may not adapt and continue to trade what could be a losing strategy in the short term.
If capital flows out of development, we continue to see skewed action in top market names and landlords start to back off, then the opportunities presented will be different. Different playbooks will apply and be awarded. What worked before will no longer work. Therefore, it is important to react to the price action you see and make adjustments in real time rather than after the fact.
Important Disclosures
