[Webinar] Understanding and mitigating curve fitting in the trading system

“Understanding and Mitigating Curve Fitting in the Trading System”! This dynamic session aims to equip novice to intermediate traders, quantitative analysts and financial engineers with the necessary skills to avoid overfitting in trading systems. Diving deep into the intricacies of curve fitting and its implications, we’ll explore best practices for developing robust systems. With real-world examples and interactive discussions, you’ll leave with useful information and tools to improve your trading strategies. Join us to unravel the complexities of curve fitting and safeguard your trading success!

Introduction
– Overview of the trading system and the role of quantitative models.
– Define curve fitting: Fitting a model too close to historical data, which may not perform well in the future.
– Brief on why it is critical in trading systems.

Course Objectives
– Define curve fitting and its importance in system transactions.
– Identify the signs of curve fitting in a trading system.
– Understand the consequences of over-positioning.
– Learn strategies to avoid curve fitting.
– Apply best practices for developing robust trading systems.

Understanding curve fitting
– Detailed explanation of curve fitting and overfitting.
– Examples of curve fitting in trading systems.
– The difference between a good fit and an overfit.

Consequences of curve fitting
– Effect on predictive power and out-of-sample performance.
– Real examples of losses due to overfitting models.

Curve fitting detection
– Signs that your model may be overfitted.
– Tools and methods to diagnose curve fitting in your system.

Moderate curve fitting
– Best practices in data management: Out-of-sample testing, cross-validation.
– The importance of simplicity in model design.
– Tidying techniques to avoid overfitting.

Building powerful trading systems
– Strategies for developing systems that are resistant to curve fit.
– Importance of continuous monitoring and adaptation.

Interactive Q&A session
– Open space for participants to ask questions and discuss the real challenges they face in system trading and curve fitting.

conclusion
– Recap key points.
– Encouragement to apply the learning concepts.
– Further resources to deepen understanding.

Materials and Resources
– Presentation slides.
– Case studies of trading systems with curve fitting analysis.
– List of software and tools for backtesting and curve fitting analysis.
– Further reading list: Books, articles and research papers.

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